Vietnam to achieve 5.6% growth in 2012: IMF
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Vietnam will be amongst the five ASEAN countries including Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Malaysia to achieve high growth in 2012 and 2013, the International Monetary Fund said in its latest world economic outlook report.
At a steel manufacturing plant Photo: Tuoi Tre
The five countries are grouped by IMF as the ASEAN-5 category, and Vietnam is foreseen to enjoy a 5.6 percent growth, while the respective rates for the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia are 4.2 percent, 6.1 percent, 5.5 percent, and 4.4 percent.
Vietnam’s growth would rise to 6.3 percent the following year, the report stated.
IMF also projected the country to restrict inflation to a single digit, while fiscal deficit by 2015 would fall under 2.25 percent of GDP.
Vietnam should limit fiscal expansion this year to better control inflation and stabilize macro-economy, IMF said.
It also appreciates the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) for recently increasing foreign reserves, while the foreign exchange rate on the market remains in the official trading band.
IMF also supports SBV’s policy to limit the devaluation of the Vietnamese dong to the 2 – 3 percent rate from now to year-end.
HSBC predicts higher growth
Meanwhile, the economic research group of HSBC, in its Asian macro-economy report for Q1/2012, has projected a slightly higher economic growth rate for Vietnam in 2012 -- 5.7 percent.
The report stated that Vietnam’s government has implemented necessary measures to tighten fiscal and monetary policies, which helped lower budget deficit to 4.9 percent of GDP last year from the 5.7 percent a year earlier.
Meanwhile, the country’s inflation till this year-end is forecast to fall to one digit.
Vietnam's export surged rapidly thanks to high demand for agricultural products, apparel and crude oil as well as price rises, HSBC said in the report.
The bank estimated that country's export in 2012 would grow by 24 percent year on year.
Export growth was 33.3 percent in 2011.
“Vietnam is expected to be in stable macro-economy thanks to falling inflation and the restricted budget and trade deficit, and better monetary policies,” HSBC said.