The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development recently increased its forecast regarding the coffee export value for 2011 after prices kept rising.
HA NOI —
According to the new forecast, coffee exports during 2011 may well reach 1.2 million tonnes, worth more than US$2.6 billion.
Export value increased by around $1 billion during 2010 and rose by $600 million in comparison with the ministry's forecast at the end of 2010.
Current predictions are based on ministry reports revealing that the export value during the first four months year-on-year nearly doubled to $1.4 billion while volumes rose by only 45.4 per cent to 675,000 tonnes. During this time, export value surged by between 1.5 and 8 times throughout markets, including the largest one in the US.
Experts attribute high value to increasing export prices. During recent years, coffee prices have kept increasing by 200 per cent, according to experts.
In the first four months, the average price came at around $2,200 to $2,300 per tonne, surging by 50 per cent over the same period in the previous year.
Experts predict that prices will continue to increase as Brazil, the largest coffee producer in the world has not yet harvested its crop.
In addition, some farmers kept stocks of coffee in reserve while waiting for prices to increase.
"Coffee prices follow a cycle based on a five-year increase and five-year decrease. We are currently experiencing the upwards surge," said Chairman of the Viet Nam Coffee and Cocoa Association, Doan Trieu Nhan.
Prices could remain at a stand-still if manufacturers had enough material for production.
According to a forecast by the International Coffee Organisation, the coffee yield of Viet Nam, in terms of 2010-11 crop, will come in at around 18.4 million bags, a 1.3 per cent increase compared to previous crops. — VNS