Vietnam's Consumer Price Index (CPI) in December is estimated to increase 0.6% from November, according to newswire NDHMoney’s calculation, using Leontief -ARIMA models.
NDHMoney said this would bring the whole year's CPI to 18.2%, slightly exceeding the government’s target of 18%.
NDHMoney’s estimate proves accurate, Vietnam's month-on-month CPI will accelerate for the 3rd consecutive month, from 0.36% in October to 0.39% in November and 0.6% in December.
This rise would be quite low compared to CPI of December of previous years. Last December for instance, CPI increased by 1.98% compared to October.
With this month’s modest rise, the year-on-year CPI increase is expected to be lower from the previous estimate of 19.83%.
Though this year's inflation may be lower than the record rise of 19.89% in 2008, it will still be very high compared to other years.
Among the group of goods and services that are seeing higher prices this month, the prices of food and foodstuff, restaurant, garment and textile, headwear, footwear, household equipments and appliances, housing and construction materials are rising particularly high because of increasing gas prices.
NHDMoney’s calculation coincides with the figure of the Ministry of Finance that has expected December's CPI to increase by 0.5-0.6% month-on-month due to seasonal factors such as rising demand of goods and services for Christmas and Tet holidays.
According to the ministry, gas prices will further increase this month, following an increase in world prices. Sugar prices will fall slightly due to abundant supply while salt prices will go up because of lower production nationwide.
The ministry said that CPI’s increase would be slight thanks to price stabilization programs aimed at preventing dramatic price increases and essential goods shortages.
Many local supermarkets themselves have stocked up in preparation for the upcoming holidays.