VietNamNet Bridge – The current policies by some countries on prohibiting farm produce has made the supply shortage in the world become more serious and pushed the prices up. However, Vietnamese exporters cannot take full advantage of the opportunity to boost exports because of the bad weather, according to Thoi bao Kinh te Vietnam.
Rice exports set to decrease in Q4
According to the Vietnam Food Association, Vietnam had exported 5.563 million tons of rice by October 2010, earning $2.351 billion. The average export price in the last 10 months was $467.3 per ton, an increase of 4.7 percent over the same period of the last year.
However, experts have warned that the yield of the next crop in the north may decrease due to the flood and pestilent insects. Meanwhile, in southern provinces, the water shortage has badly affected the cultivation.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) believes that in the fourth quarter of the year, the rice export volume would be 1.04 million tons, much lower than the export volume in the first three quarters of the year (1.443 million tons in the first quarter and nearly two million tons in the second and third quarters).
Also according to the ministry, the total rice export volume in 2010 would reach 6.29 million tons.
Seafood processing still facing material shortage
The tra fish price in Mekong Delta has increased to 17,700 dong per kilogramme, increasing by 1000 dong per kilo over the previous month and 14 percent over the same period of the last year. According to the General Statistics Office, by October, the seafood export turnover had reached four billion dollar, up by 15.3 percent over the same period of 2009.
However, MARD has warned that seafood processing factories would face the material shortage in the last months of 2010 and the first months of 2011.
The storms and floods in the central region both have badly affected the industry. The volume of aquatic products caught in the first 10 months of the year increased by 8.9 percent over the same period of 2009, while the cultivated products increased by three percent only.
MARD has predicted that the seafood export turnover would reach $4.874 billion this yea, an increase of 14.7 percent over 2009. However, the monthly export turnover would decrease from $500 million in October to $450 million in November and to $420 million in December.
Pepper export volume on the decrease
The pepper supply has become short in the world market. Vietnam’s pepper output decreases by 20 percent due to the bad weather.
The black pepper in the domestic market was traded at 71,500 dong per kilo in early October, but the price then increased slightly by one percent in late October due to the Vietnam dong depreciation.
The pepper export turnover in the first 10 months of the year had reached $363 million, an increase of 22.5 percent over the same period of the last year. Meanwhile, the export volume in 2010 is expected to reach 112.3 thousand tons, lower than the previously forecast level at 113.94 thousand tons.
Rubber export price may decrease in coming months
The worry about the short supply prompted Chinese importers to buy a big volume of natural rubber in October, thus pushing the prices up. On October 26, the price of SMR200 rubber was $3953 per ton in Malaysia.
The natural rubber demand from China is expected to increase by 41.5 percent in the fourth quarter of the year compared with the same period of the last year. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s rubber output is expected to reach 770,000 tons, up by 6.4 percent over 2009. Vietnam’s RSS3 rubber export price was $3681 per ton on average.
However, MARD has warned that the export price may decrease due to the higher supply in the last months of the year. It is expected that Vietnam will export 750,000 tons in 2010, earning $2.1 billion.
Bad weather affects coffee supply
The coffee stocks in coffee production countries may drop to 12 million bags, the lowest level in history.
The recent months have witnessed the upward trend in the coffee prices. In New York, Arabica coffee price hit the 13-year highest peak on October 26 at $201.75/lb (delivery in December).
On October 27, Vietnam’s export price was $1810 per ton (FOB HCM City).